Edward Norton Lorenz: Publications
1950: Dynamic models illustrating the energy balance of the atmosphere. J. Meteor., 7, 30-38.
1951: Seasonal and irregular variations of the northern hemisphere sea-level pressure profile. J. Meteor., 8, 52-59.
1952: Flow of angular momentum as a predictor for the zonal westerlies. J. Meteor., 9, 152-157.
1953: The interaction between a mean flow and random disturbances. Tellus, 3, 238-250.
1953: A proposed explanation for the existence of two regimes of flow in a rotating symmetrically-heated cylindrical vessel. Fluid Models in Geophysics, Proc. 1st Sympos. Models in Geophys. Fluid Dynamics,
1953: A multiple-index notation for describing atmospheric transport processes. Geophys. Res. Papers, 24, 100-110.
1953: Displacement and intensification associated with variations of local angular momentum. Geophys. Res. Papers, 24, 164-170.
1953: The vertical extent of Jupiter's Atmosphere. Geophys. Res. Papers, 24, 123-127.
1954: A study of the general circulation and a possible theory suggested by it. Sci. Proc. Internat. Assoc. Meteor.,
1955: Available potential energy and the maintenance of the general circulation. Tellus, 7, 271-281.
1955: Generation of available potential energy and the intensity of the general circulation. Scientific Report No. 1, UCLA, Dept. of Meteorology, July 1955.
1956: Empirical orthogonal functions and statistical weather prediction. Scientific Report No. 1, Statistical Forecasting Project. Air Force Research Laboratories, Office of Aerospace Research, USAF,
1957: Static stability and atmospheric energy. Scientific Report No. 9, General Circulation Project, Starr, V. P., director, Geophysics Research Directorate of the
1960: Generation of available potential energy and the intensity of the general circulation. Dynamics of Climate (R. L. Pfeffer, Ed.),
1960: Maximum simplification of the dynamic equations. Tellus, 12, 243-254.
1960: Energy and numerical weather prediction. Tellus, 12, 364-373.
1961: A numerical study of the effect of vertical stability on monsoonal and zonal circulations. (with E. B. Kraus). Changes of Climate, UNESCO, Belgium, pp. 361-372.
1962: Simplified dynamic equations applied to the rotating-basin experiments. J. Atmos. Sci.,19, 39-51.
1962: The statistical prediction of solutions of dynamic equations. Proc. Internat. Sympos. Numerical Weather Prediction,
1963: The predictability of hydrodynamic flow.
1963: Deterministic nonperiodic flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 20, 130-141.
1963: The mechanics of vacillation. J. Atmos. Sci., 20, 448-464.
1964: The problem of deducing the climate from the governing equations. Tellus, 16, 1-11.
1965: Energetics of atmospheric circulation. International Dictionary of Geophysics, Pergamon Press, 1-9.
1965: On the possible reasons for long-period fluctuations of the general circulation. WMO-IUGG Symp. on Research and Development Aspects of Long-range Forecasting, Technical Note No. 66, WMO-No. 162.TP.79, 203-211.
1965: A study of the predictability of a 28-variable atmospheric model. Tellus, 17, 321-333.
1966: Atmospheric predictability. Advances in Numerical Weather Prediction. The Travelers Research Center, Inc.,34-39.
1966: Nonlinearity, weather prediction, and climate deduction. Final report, Statistical Forecasting Project, Air Force Cambridge Research Laboratories, Office of Aerospace Research, USAF,
1966: The circulation of the atmosphere. Amer. Scientist, 54, 402-420.
1966: Numerical experiments with large-scale seasonal forcing (with E. B. Kraus). J. Atmos. Sci., 23, 3-12.
1966: Reply. J. Atmos. Sci., 23, 629-630.
1966: Large-scale motions of the atmosphere: circulation. Advances in Earth Science, MIT Press, 95-109.
1967: The nature and theory of the general circulation of the atmosphere. WMO Bulletin, April 1967, 74-78.
1968: Climatic determinism. Meteor. Monographs, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 25, 1-3.
1969: The predictability of a flow which possesses many scales of motion. Tellus, 21, 19 pp.
1969: Three approaches to atmospheric predictability. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 50, 345-351.
1969: Atmospheric predictability as revealed by naturally occurring analogues. J. Atmos. Sci., 26, 636-646.
1969: Studies of atmospheric predictability. [Part 1] [Part 2] [Part 3] [Part 4] Final Report, February, Statistical Forecasting Project. Air Force Research Laboratories, Office of Aerospace Research, USAF,
1969: The nature of the global circulation of the atmosphere: a present view. The Global Circulation of the Atmosphere, London, Roy. Meteor. Soc., 3-23.
1969: How much better can weather prediction become? Technology Rev., July/August, 39-49.
1970: Climatic change as a mathematical problem. J. Appl. Meteor., 9, 325-329.
1970: Forecast for another century of weather progress. A Century of Weather Progress. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 18-24.
1971: An N-cycle time-differencing scheme for stepwise numerical integration. Mon. Wea. Rev., 99, 644-648.
1972: Investigating the predictability of turbulent motion. Statistical Models and Turbulence, Proceedings of symposium held at the
1972: Barotropic instability of Rossby wave motion. J. Atmos. Sci., 29, 258-264.
1972: Low-order models representing realizations of turbulence. J. Fluid Mech., 55, 545-563.
1973: Predictability and periodicity: A review and extension. Proc. 3rd Conf. Prob. and Statis. In Atmos. Sci., Amer. Meteor. Sci., 1-4.
1973: On the existence of extended range predictability. J. Appl. Meteor., 12, 543-546.
1975: Climatic predictability. GARP Publications Series, April, pp. 132-136.
1976: Nondeterministic theories of climatic change. Quaternary Res., 6, 495-506.
1976: A rapid procedure for inverting del-square with certain computers. Mon. Wea. Rev., 104, 961-966.
1976 : Limitations on weather prediction. Colloquium on Weather Forecasting and Weather Forecasts: Models, Systems, and Users, Boulder, CO., Notes from a Colloquium, vol: 1 pp. 214 -218.
1977: An experiment in nonlinear statistical weather forecasting. Mon. Wea. Rev., 105, 590-602.
1978: A reply to comments by Franz Fliri. Letter to the editor,
1978: Available energy and the maintenance of a moist circulation. Tellus, 30, 15-31.
1979: Numerical evaluation of moist available energy. Tellus, 31, 230-235.
1979: Forced and free variations of weather and climate. J. Atmos. Sci., 36, 1367-1376.
1979: On the prevalence of aperiodicity in simple systems. Global analysis, New York, Springer Verlag, 53-75.
1980: Noisy periodicity and reverse bifurcation. Ann.
1980: Attractor sets and quasi-geostrophic equilibrium. J. Atmos. Sci., 37, 1685-1699.
1980: Nonlinear statistical weather prediction. [Abstract only] WMO Symposium on the Probabilistic and Statistical Methods in Weather Forecasting, Nice, Sept. 8-12, 1980, Collection of papers presented, Geneva, World Meteorological Organization, . pp. 3-8.
1982: Low-order models of atmospheric circulations. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 60, 1, 255-267.
1982: Atmospheric predictability experiments with a large numerical model. Tellus, 34, 505-513.
1982: Some aspects of atmospheric predictability. European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Seminar 1981: problems and prospects in long and medium range weather forecasting, 14-18 September,
1983: A history of prevailing ideas about the general circulation of the atmosphere. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 64, 730-734.
[1983: Crafoord Prize announcement. Tellus, 36A, 97.]
1984: Formulation of a low-order model of a moist general circulation. J. Atmos. Sci., 41, 1933-1945.
1984: Estimates of atmospheric predictability at medium range. Predictability of Fluid Motions (G. Holloway and B. West, eds.), New York, American Institute of Physics, 133-139.
1984: Irregularity: a fundamental property of the atmosphere. Crafoord Prize Lecture, presented at the
1984: The local structure of a chaotic attractor in four dimensions. Physica, 13D, 90-104.
1984: A very narrow spectral band. J. Stat. Phys., 36, 1-14.
1985: The growth of errors in prediction. In Turbulence and Predictability in Geophysical Fluid Dynamics and Climate Dynamics, Soc. Italiana di Fisica,
1985: Lyapunov numbers and the local structure of attractors. Physica, 17D, 279-294.
1986: The index cycle is alive and well. In Namias Symposium, Roads, J. O., ed.
1986: On the existence of a slow manifold. J. Atmos. Sci., 43, 1547-1557.
1986: Atmospheric models as dynamical systems. Perspectives in Nonlinear Dynamics, World Scientific Publishing Co., 1-17.
1987: Deterministic and stochastic aspects of atmospheric dynamics. Irreversible Phenomena and Dynamical Systems Analysis in Geosciences. D. Reidel Publishing Co., 159-179.
1987: Low-order models and their uses. Irreversible Phenomena and Dynamical Systems Analysis in Geosciences. D. Reidel Publishing Co., 557-567.
1987: On the nonexistence of a slow manifold (with V. Krishnamurthy). J. Atmos. Sci., 44, 2940-2950.
1989: Effects of analysis and model errors on routine weather forecasts. Ten Years of Medium-Range Weather Forecasting.
1989: Computational chaos: a prelude to computational instability. Physica, 35D, 299-317.
1990: Can chaos and intransitivity lead to interannual variability? Tellus, 42A, 378-389.
1990: Charney—a remarkable colleague. In The Atmosphere—a challenge, the science of Jule Gregory Charney, Lindzen, R. S., Lorenz, E. N., and Platzman, G. W., eds. Boston, MA, American Meteorological Society, pp. 89-91.
1991: Chaos, spontaneous climatic variations and detection of the greenhouse effect. Greenhouse-Gas-Induced Climatic Change: A Critical Appraisal of Simulations and Observations, M. E. Schlesinger, Ed. Elsevier Science Publishers B. V., Amsterdam, pp. 445-453.
1991: The general circulation of the atmosphere: an evolving problem. Tellus, 43AB, 8-15.
1991: Dimension of weather and climate attractors. Nature, 353, 241-244.
1992: The slow manifold: What is it? J. Atmos. Sci., 49, 2449-2451.
1993: The Essence of Chaos. Univ. of
1996: Predictability -- A Problem Partly Solved Edward Lorenz
1996: The bulletin interviews. WMO Bulletin, Vol. 45, No. 2.
1996: The evolution of dynamic meteorology. Historical essays on meteorology 1919-1995, J. R. Fleming, Ed., Amer. Meteor. Soc., 3—19.
1998: Optimal sites for supplementary weather observations: simulations with a small model (with K. A. Emanuel). J. Atmos. Sci., 55, 399-414.
2005: Some reflections on the theoretical predictability of climate. [Abstract only] Ed Lorenz Symposium, San Diego, CA, 8-14 January. American Meteorological Society.
2005: Designing chaotic models. J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 1574-1587.
2005: A look at some details of the growth of initial uncertainties. Tellus, 57A, 1-11.
2006: Predictabilitya problem partly solved. In Predictability of Weather and Climate, ed. Tim Palmer and Renate Hagedorn.
2006: Reflections on the conception, birth, and childhood of numerical weather prediction. Ann. Rev. Earth Planetary Sci., 34, 37-45.
2006: An attractor embedded in the atmosphere. Tellus, 58A, 425-429.
2006: Computational periodicity as observed in a simple system. Tellus, 58A, 549-557.
2006: Regimes in simple systems. J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 2056–2073.
2008: Compound windows of the Hénon map. Physica D, 237, 1689-1704.
2008: Reply to comment by L.-S. Yao and D. Hughes. Tellus. To be published.
MISCELLANEOUS (LECTURES, AUTOBIOGRAPHICAL WORKS, ETC.)
1970: Progress report on atmospheric predictability. Never printed.
1972: Limits of meteorological predictability. Prepared for the American Meteorological Society, February.
1972: “Predictability: Does the Flap of a Butterfly's Wings in Brazil Set Off a Tornado in Texas?'' Talk presented Dec. 29, AAAS Section on Environmental Sciences, New Approaches to Global Weather: GARP. Sheraton Park Plaza Hotel,
1979: Dynamical and empirical methods of weather forecasting. November. Unknown context.
1987: The Ideal Hadley Circulation: Fundamental Flow or Fairy Tale? [Starr lecture]
1991: Reply to questionnaire. For Kyoto Award.
1991: A scientist by choice. Kyoto Award lecture.
1997: Climate is what you expect. [Prepared for publication by NCAR; unknown if actually printed. Possibly related to presentation at NCAR colloquiem, Applications of statistics to modeling the Earth’s climate system, November 1994.]
1999: The simplest chaotic Hamiltonian system. Physica D. Withdrawn
[date unknown] Chaos and the weather forecast.
2007: Foreword. Empirical methods in short-term climate prediction, van den Dool, H., ed. Oxford University Press, pp. xi-xii.
2008: The butterfly effect. Premio Felice Pietro Chisesi e Caterina Tomassoni award lecture, University of Rome, Rome, April.
Professor Edward Lorenz (1917-2008), a long time member of the department, discovered the surprising behavior we now know as chaos. In his ground-breaking 1963 paper Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow, using a simple, three-equation weather model, Lorenz demonstrated that even fully deterministic systems can behave in ways that are intrinsically unpredictable. His discovery has, and continues to have, a profound impact on a wide range of disciplines beyond meteorology and climate, from mathematics and geophysics, to economics and even philosophy.